In Depth: Conservative Party & Conservatism – The Beginning Of The End?

The Conservative Party underwent significant ideological shifts over the last two decades, particularly during the leadership of David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Rishi Sunak. These changes reflect internal divisions within the party, resulting in the formation of key factions such as the European Research Group (ERG), led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, which contributed to reshaping the party’s policies and identity.

David Cameron Era (2005–2016)

David Cameron took over the Conservative Party at a time when it was struggling to shake off its image of being out of touch and socially conservative, particularly after Tony Blair’s New Labour dominated British politics. Cameron’s leadership represented a concerted effort to modernise and rebrand the party, moving it towards the political centre and broadening its appeal.

1. Social Liberalism: Cameron introduced socially liberal reforms, most notably the legalisation of same-sex marriage in 2013, which was a significant departure from the party’s traditional stance on family values. This move was divisive within the party, alienating many socially conservative members who saw this as a betrayal of the party’s core values.
2. Environmental and Compassionate Policies: Cameron prioritised environmental issues and introduced the idea of the “Big Society,” which aimed to promote volunteerism and reduce the state’s role in providing services. He embraced green policies, pushing the party towards greater environmental awareness, which contrasted with its historical focus on deregulation and business-first approaches.
3. Balancing Fiscal Conservatism and Welfare: Cameron’s government implemented austerity measures in response to the financial crisis, focusing on reducing public debt. However, his “compassionate conservatism” was designed to soften the party’s image by retaining a degree of social safety nets, maintaining a level of state support for the most vulnerable. This attempt to balance fiscal responsibility with social welfare reforms again divided the party, with many traditional conservatives preferring deeper welfare cuts.

Overall, Cameron’s efforts to modernise the party had mixed results. While he succeeded in making the Conservatives more electable and centrist, these policies alienated the party’s traditionalist base, who believed he had diluted core Conservative values.

Theresa May Era (2016–2019)

Following Cameron’s resignation after the Brexit referendum, Theresa May became Prime Minister in July 2016. May attempted to navigate the party through the challenging post-referendum landscape but faced considerable opposition from various factions within the Conservatives.

1. Brexit Negotiations and Internal Divisions: May inherited a deeply divided party, and her attempts to negotiate a Brexit deal that satisfied both Remainers and Leavers proved difficult. Her proposed “soft Brexit” approach aimed to maintain a close economic relationship with the EU while fulfilling the referendum mandate to leave. This position was rejected by the hard-line Brexiteers within the party, particularly the ERG, who wanted a cleaner break from the EU.
2. Leadership Undermined by ERG: The ERG, headed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, became a major force in opposing May’s Brexit deals. They felt her compromises, particularly the Irish backstop arrangement, tied the UK too closely to EU regulations and threatened the country’s sovereignty. Their staunch opposition played a pivotal role in the failure of May’s proposed agreements in Parliament, ultimately leading to her resignation in 2019 after multiple defeats in the House of Commons.
3. Balancing Economic and Social Policy: While Brexit dominated her leadership, May also advocated for a more interventionist approach to the economy, emphasising the need to address social inequality and “burning injustices.” However, these domestic policies were largely overshadowed by the political turmoil surrounding Brexit.

Theresa May’s leadership struggled to maintain party unity amidst deep Brexit divisions. Her inability to secure parliamentary support for her Brexit deal, due in large part to the opposition from hard-line Brexiteers, led to her downfall, setting the stage for Boris Johnson’s rise.

Post-May Era and the Rise of the ERG

Following May’s resignation, the European Research Group (ERG) became even more influential within the Conservative Party. This faction of hard-line Brexiteers, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, played a central role in pushing for a more uncompromising approach to leaving the EU.

• European Research Group (ERG): The ERG advocated for a hard Brexit, resisting any deal that would keep the UK tied to the EU’s customs union or single market. This faction became more powerful during May’s tenure as they opposed her compromises and later rallied behind Boris Johnson’s leadership, seeing him as the person to deliver their vision of Brexit.

Boris Johnson Era (2019–2022)

Boris Johnson’s rise to power was heavily influenced by the ERG and other pro-Brexit elements within the party. He positioned himself as the leader who would “get Brexit done” and was more aligned with the populist and nationalist right.

1. Brexit and Populism: Johnson’s leadership focused heavily on completing Brexit, prioritising national sovereignty, immigration control, and distancing the UK from EU regulations. His approach involved a significant shift towards populism, emphasising cultural identity and appealing to voters who felt left behind by globalisation and the political establishment. This represented a marked departure from the globalist and centrist approach of Cameron.
2. Economic Interventionism: Despite coming from a party historically committed to free-market economics, Johnson’s government displayed an unprecedented level of economic intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic. The introduction of furlough schemes, massive government borrowing, and public spending were seen as necessary but represented a clear departure from the fiscal conservatism associated with the party’s past.
3. Culture Wars and Nationalism: Under Johnson, the Conservative Party also became increasingly involved in “culture wars,” addressing issues such as race relations, national identity, and the “woke agenda.” This shift towards engaging in social and cultural debates was part of an effort to solidify support among nationalist and socially conservative voters, further distancing the party from the centrist, progressive tone set by Cameron.

Rishi Sunak Era (2022–Present)

After Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak assumed leadership of a party that had been significantly reshaped by Brexit, nationalism, and economic interventionism. Sunak, a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, brings a more fiscally conservative approach to leadership, but he faces the challenge of balancing the various factions within the party.

1. Fiscal Caution: Sunak has signalled a return to more traditional Conservative economic values, focusing on reducing public debt and fiscal responsibility. His economic policies are a contrast to Johnson’s interventionist stance, yet he has had to manage the political fallout from post-pandemic economic challenges.
2. Balancing Populism and Traditional Conservatism: While Sunak is more economically conservative than Johnson, he continues to face pressure from the populist wing of the party, including the ERG, to maintain hard-line positions on immigration and cultural issues. His leadership is marked by the need to unify a party divided between populists, traditional conservatives, and moderates.

Internal Divisions Within the Conservative Party

Throughout these leadership changes, internal factions within the Conservative Party have become more pronounced:

• Traditional Conservatives: This group favours limited government intervention, fiscal conservatism, and adherence to traditional social values. They were increasingly alienated during Cameron’s socially liberal and centrist leadership.
• Populist and Nationalist Conservatives: Emerging primarily during and after the Brexit referendum, this faction, heavily influenced by the ERG, focuses on nationalism, sovereignty, and strong immigration control. They are more likely to support policies that resonate with voters who feel disenfranchised by globalisation.
• Centrists and Moderates: These are members of the party who align with Cameron’s vision of a modern, socially liberal, and economically moderate Conservative Party. They have struggled to maintain influence in the party’s shift towards populism under Johnson and the economic caution of Sunak.

The Conservative Party has transformed from Cameron’s centrist, modernised version into a party increasingly defined by Brexit, nationalism, and populism, largely due to the rise of the ERG and other right-wing factions. Theresa May’s attempts to secure a compromise on Brexit were thwarted by these divisions, leading to her resignation. Boris Johnson’s populism and economic interventionism marked a clear shift from the traditional values of small government and fiscal conservatism. Now, under Rishi Sunak, the party faces the challenge of reconciling its more populist, nationalist elements with those advocating for a return to traditional conservative principles, leading to ongoing internal divisions.

The perception of the Conservative Party’s decline is closely linked to its ageing membership base and the party’s increasingly narrow demographic of supporters. Studies show that most Conservative members and supporters are predominantly over 45, white, male, and increasingly far-right leaning. This has led to concerns about the party’s future as it struggles to connect with younger, more diverse voters.

Demographic Challenges

The party’s base skews older, with a significant portion of its supporters over 45 years of age. As younger generations are generally more liberal on social and cultural issues, the Conservatives have faced difficulties in maintaining broad appeal. Many young voters feel alienated by the party’s stance on issues like Brexit, immigration, and climate change. As the party leans into nationalism and cultural conservatism, its appeal seems limited to an older demographic.

Baroness Warsi’s Resignation

Baroness Warsi’s decision to quit the Conservative Party in the Lords further highlights internal divisions and dissatisfaction within the party. Warsi, a former chair of the party, has been a prominent critic of the Conservatives’ handling of Islamophobia and their failure to engage with minority communities. Her departure signifies the growing disconnect between the party’s leadership and its ethnic minority members. Warsi’s resignation points to the party’s struggle to be inclusive and its failure to address key concerns around race and Islamophobia.

Local Examples of Decline: The Rotary Club of Tamworth

The Rotary Club of Tamworth recently closed after 75 years of community service due to a decline in membership. This local example mirrors the broader demographic issues faced by the Conservatives. Organisations and institutions that once relied on a strong base of older, white, and male members are increasingly struggling to remain viable as this demographic declines or becomes less engaged. The closure of the Tamworth Rotary Club can be seen as a local reflection of national trends: an ageing and shrinking supporter base leading to a reduction in influence and presence.

The Conservative Party’s future appears increasingly uncertain as its membership and support base become more concentrated among older, white, and socially conservative individuals. High-profile resignations like Baroness Warsi’s underscore the party’s internal struggles, while local examples like the closure of the Rotary Club in Tamworth highlight the broader demographic challenges facing traditional conservative institutions. Without attracting younger, more diverse supporters, the party risks further decline in both membership and electoral relevance.

The local Conservative infighting in Tamworth serves as a perfect reflection of the issues plaguing the national party. When you take a look at the potential future leadership, it’s hard to find anyone worth voting for………………

There’s no future for the Conservatives; they seem to be fading away like the dinosaurs.

Cheers


Will-I-am Not-Wordsworth

[Debunking Editors Note: Whilst generally this site is Conservative leaning, we hope the publication of this shows we are very much open to any ideas and thoughts. The site team are very much hoping the Conservatives are not fading away like the Dinosaurs, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to be electable nationally again.]